Ocean ice effectually Antarctica has reached a record low in iv decades of observations, a new analysis of satellite images shows.
Equally of Tuesday, ice covered 750,000 square miles effectually the Antarctic coast, below the previous record low of 815,000 foursquare miles in early on March 2017, co-ordinate to the analysis by the National Snow and Ice Data Middle in Bedrock, Colo.
“It’south really unprecedented,” said Marilyn North. Raphael, a professor of geography at the University of California, Los Angeles, who studies Antarctic sea ice. Warmer ocean temperatures may accept played a role, she said, “simply at that place are other factors that we volition be working on finding out in the side by side months.”
Antarctic sea ice extent is highly variable from year to year, but overall has increased very slightly, on boilerplate, since the tardily 1970s, when satellite observations began. By contrast, sea ice extent in the Arctic, which is warming almost three times every bit fast as other regions, has decreased by more than 10 percent a decade over the same period.
The two regions are very different. The Arctic Ocean covers high latitudes, including the Northward Pole itself, and is hemmed in by country masses. In the Southern Hemisphere, Antarctica covers the pole. The Antarctic ocean, which surrounds the continent, begins at much lower latitudes and is open to the due north.
While rapid warming in the Chill is largely responsible for the shrinking of ocean ice there, the upshot of climatic change on Antarctic sea ice is far less clear.
Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, a climate scientist at the Academy of Washington, said that many scientists expect that global warming will eventually lead to declines in Antarctic sea ice. But right now, he said, “information technology’s really difficult to connect the 2, especially in terms of single events like this one.”
Instead, a circuitous group of factors is at play when it come up to Antarctic sea ice. Large-calibration atmospheric patterns, oftentimes occurring far from the continent, equally well as local bounding main currents and winds tin can all increase or reduce bounding main-water ice coverage.
For example, Dr. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth said, some research suggests that a strong El Niño in 2015 and 2016, when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific were higher than normal, led to sharply lower ocean ice coverage in 2016.
Ted Scambos, a senior researcher at the Earth Scientific discipline and Ascertainment Center at the University of Colorado, said in an email message that warmer than normal sea-surface temperatures in some areas around Antarctica may take played a role in the current minimum.
And Dr. Raphael said winds may also have had an effect, specially in the surface area of the Amundsen Sea on the continent’due south western side. A region of low pressure air that regularly develops over the ocean was especially potent this year, she said, and that resulted in stronger winds that may have driven more ice farther to the north, into warmer waters where it would melt faster.
While overall sea ice extent has only slightly increased since the tardily 1970s, the charge per unit of increase began to advance in 2000, and ice extent reached a record high in 2014. Merely then something unexpected happened, Dr. Raphael said. Information technology dropped drastically over the next three years, reaching the record low in 2017.
Since then sea water ice extent rebounded, Dr. Raphael said, returning to roughly average levels by 2020.
Usually, she said, levels would then have continued to be boilerplate or higher up average for several years. But the new abrupt drop this year occurred sooner. “It happened so quickly,” she said.
“That’s what makes this one unusual,” she added. After 2017, “the ice went back to normal but didn’t stay that style.”
Dr. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth said that to empathize why the ice extent is so depression now, researchers will accept to examine how weather condition might have shifted last year. “I wouldn’t be surprised if we find out that this is the effect of changes in winds over the last three to 6 months,” he said.
The low sea ice extent has been noticeable in the Weddell Sea, east of the Antarctic Peninsula, which because of its circular electric current retains much more ice from year to year than the other parts of the Antarctic declension. A group of scientists and explorers encountered relatively mild ice weather while venturing into the sea this month in search of the wreck of Endurance, Ernest Shackleton’s ship, which sank during an Antarctic trek in 1915.
This year’south ice extent could dip even lower, depending on the conditions, merely should before long get-go increasing as temperatures brainstorm to drop heading into the Antarctic fall and wintertime. Ice coverage reaches a maximum each year effectually the end of September. The average maximum over four decades is more than 7 one thousand thousand square miles.
Dr. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth said that events similar this one and the previous tape depression offered researchers an opportunity to better empathize the connexion betwixt climate change and bounding main ice in Antarctica. “A valid new research question might be, are these the first few indications that at that place is starting to be a reversal in the long-term trends?” he said.